Indiana Fever vs Las Vegas Aces: projection vs. actual.
4 verified final games, 46 player forecast-to-result pairs and 12 players with forecasts in multiple meetings. The forecasts were saved before tip-off; this review does not predict their next game.
See the game resultsSaved pregame baselines for these teams
Latest qualified snapshotsEach link is a separate pre-tip recent-games player baseline, not a lineup-adjusted forecast or a prediction from this review. The selected finals in this review may fall before or after a baseline's capture; check the dates on both pages.
Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces
Saved Oct 1, 2:02 PM EDT · 25 qualified player baselines. Availability and starters were not confirmed by this snapshot.
Open the saved player baselineHow each side compared
Selected games onlyThe table weights each player-game forecast equally. A smaller average absolute miss means the saved projection was closer to the final result among players with both records; it is not a win probability or a future-game forecast.
| Team | Record | Points scored | Compared players | Minutes avg. abs. miss | Points avg. abs. miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Fever | 1–3 | 351 | 23 | 5.9 | 4.3 |
| Las Vegas Aces | 3–1 | 371 | 23 | 5.6 | 3.4 |
Actual minutes averaged 4.4 minutes above the saved forecasts; actual points averaged 0.2 points above the saved forecasts.
Kelsey Mitchell had this side's largest points gap: 12 scored against 24.1 saved for Sun, Sep 27 ↗.
Actual minutes averaged 5.0 minutes above the saved forecasts; actual points averaged 1.9 points above the saved forecasts.
A'ja Wilson had this side's largest points gap: 38 scored against 26.0 saved for Sun, Sep 27 ↗.
Players compared in multiple meetings
12 repeat playersThese players had a saved pre-tip forecast and final result in at least two linked games. Averages here are across their own appearances in this selected series, so you can see recurring minutes and points gaps without mixing in other opponents.
| Player | Games | Minutes proj / actual | Minutes difference | Points proj / actual | Points difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliyah BostonIndiana Fever | 4 | 22.3 / 31.0 | +8.7 | 12.6 / 20.0 | +7.4 |
| Jewell LoydLas Vegas Aces | 4 | 23.6 / 31.2 | +7.6 | 8.3 / 9.5 | +1.2 |
| Chelsea GrayLas Vegas Aces | 4 | 32.3 / 37.9 | +5.6 | 12.0 / 14.5 | +2.5 |
| Sophie CunninghamIndiana Fever | 4 | 20.4 / 26.0 | +5.6 | 5.7 / 6.0 | +0.3 |
| Caitlin ClarkIndiana Fever | 4 | 30.3 / 35.7 | +5.4 | 21.6 / 20.0 | -1.6 |
| Kelsey MitchellIndiana Fever | 4 | 29.9 / 35.0 | +5.1 | 24.1 / 22.3 | -1.9 |
| Jackie YoungLas Vegas Aces | 4 | 31.3 / 36.3 | +4.9 | 20.8 / 23.0 | +2.2 |
| A'ja WilsonLas Vegas Aces | 4 | 31.3 / 35.9 | +4.6 | 26.7 / 30.5 | +3.8 |
| Lexie HullIndiana Fever | 3 | 15.4 / 19.1 | +3.8 | 3.7 / 3.0 | -0.7 |
| Cheyenne Parker-TyusLas Vegas Aces | 3 | 14.6 / 17.3 | +2.7 | 7.1 / 7.3 | +0.2 |
| Stephanie TalbotLas Vegas Aces | 2 | 22.9 / 27.8 | +4.9 | 7.0 / 8.5 | +1.5 |
| Makayla TimpsonIndiana Fever | 2 | 19.5 / 16.9 | -2.5 | 6.5 / 4.0 | -2.5 |
The verified games
Newest first · open the source recapIndiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever
Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces
Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever
Only forecasts saved before each tip-off.
Each linked recap passed the final-score, actual-lineup and saved pre-tip forecast checks. This page requires two distinct games, at least 20 player-game pairs, at least eight pairs from each team and at least five players observed in multiple meetings. Missing forecasts are never filled from a later model run.
This is a selected historical sample, not every meeting between these teams and not a forecast for a future game. Differences are actual minus projected; average absolute misses ignore direction. Follow the source recaps to inspect each included player and capture time.
Browse other qualified WNBA matchups ↗